Why odds are published
A loot box, crate or random pack is a paid or earned item whose contents are decided by chance. Because the player does not know what they will get, some platforms, publishers and regulators ask or encourage developers to publish the chances of each outcome. The specific requirements differ between platforms and regions and change over time, so this article does not rely on any one rule. It focuses on what a published number means and what it leaves unsaid.
Published odds are information, not endorsement. They can help someone make a more informed choice about whether a purchase suits them, but they do not make a random purchase low-risk.
Reading a typical table
Imagine a crate with these illustrative odds:
| Rarity | Chance per opening |
|---|---|
| Common | 70% |
| Uncommon | 20% |
| Rare | 8% |
| Epic | 2% |
The chances add to 100%, which is a useful first check. If they do not, the table may be rounded, may leave out a category or may refer to several separate rolls.
Each percentage is a per-opening probability. In the simplest case, each opening is independent, so the probabilities do not change based on what you opened before. This is the same situation described in the article on drop rates and the gambler’s fallacy: past openings do not make a later one more likely.
From a percentage to an average number of opens
One simple conversion is to divide 1 by the chance. For the Epic tier at 2%, 1 ÷ 0.02 = 50. On average, it takes about 50 openings to see an Epic item. That is an average over many players. Individual experiences vary: with independent openings, the chance of seeing no Epic item in 50 openings is 0.98⁵⁰, about 36%.
A specific item is rarer than the tier it belongs to. If the Epic tier contains 10 items that are equally likely, each has a chance of 2% ÷ 10 = 0.2% per opening.
- Average openings for one particular Epic item: 1 ÷ 0.002 = 500
- Chance of getting it within 100 openings: 1 − 0.998¹⁰⁰, about 18%
- Chance of getting it within 500 openings: 1 − 0.998⁵⁰⁰, about 63%
So even after the average number of openings, roughly 37% of players would still be without that particular item. If the cost of each opening is known, multiplying it by the average gives a rough cost, but it is only an average. Actual spending could be much lower or much higher, and there is no guarantee unless the rules explicitly provide one. Thinking in terms of expected value helps with the average, but the average does not describe what happens to any one player.
What a disclosure may not tell you
A table of percentages leaves several important things open:
- Is the chance fixed? Some games adjust odds based on a counter or on player history. A published figure might be a base rate or an overall average. Whether pity timers or streak breakers apply may be stated separately, or not at all.
- Are the items equally useful? Odds say how often something appears, not how much it is worth to you. A top-tier item could be cosmetic, or it could affect play. Duplicates may also reduce the value of a result.
- Are there hidden layers? A crate may roll for a tier and then roll again inside the tier, with a different weighting. The nested structure follows the pattern in weighted tables, and the overall chance for an item is the product of the stages.
- Are the odds the same for everyone? Odds may differ by event, version, region or purchase type. A figure that was true when published may have changed.
- How is rounding done? Small chances may be rounded in the display, which matters when an item is listed as, say, 0.1% and the true value is somewhat different.
Using odds as context for choices
A few habits keep the numbers useful:
- Convert chances into averages and spreads. Work out the average number of attempts and remember that a large share of people will exceed it.
- Price the whole attempt, not the single opening. If a target item has a 0.2% chance, the price of one opening says little about the likely cost of getting it.
- Decide a limit before starting. Setting spending limits in advance guards against the pull of “just a few more”, which is a pattern the next section describes.
- Prefer certainty when it is available. If the same item can be bought directly, comparing that price to the likely cost of random openings is more informative than the odds table alone.
Why caution matters
Random paid rewards combine uncertainty with the emotional pull of a possible big result. People can find it easy to keep going after a run of poor outcomes, especially when they have already spent a lot. This is the logic of a sunk cost, where earlier spending feels like a reason to continue even though it does not change the chance on the next opening.
Disclosure does not remove that risk. If paid random rewards become hard to stop, or spending is going beyond what is comfortable, it is a sign to pause. Responsible play means keeping spending within a set budget, never borrowing to play and never trying to win back what was spent. Anyone struggling can contact a local support service for advice.